Density dependence and the control of helminth parasites.

1. The transient dynamics and stability of a population are determined by the interplay between species density, its spatial distribution and the positive and negative density-dependent processes regulating population growth. 2. Using the human-helminth parasite system as an example, we propose that the life-stage upon which negative density dependence operates will influence the rate of host reinfection following anthelmintic chemotherapy, and the likely success of control programmes. 3. Simple deterministic models are developed which highlight how a parasite species whose population size is down-regulated by density-dependent establishment will reinfect a host population at a faster rate than a species with density-dependent parasite fecundity. 4. Different forms of density dependence can produce the same equilibrium behaviour but different transient dynamics. Under-representing the nature and magnitude of density-dependent mechanisms, and in particular those operating upon establishing life-stages, may cause the resilience of the parasite population to a control perturbation to be underestimated

Can field-based mosquito feeding assays be used for evaluating transmission-blocking interventions?

A recent meta-analysis of mosquito feeding assays to determine the Plasmodium falciparum transmission potential of naturally infected gametocyte carriers highlighted considerable variation in transmission efficiency between assay methodologies and between laboratories. This begs the question as to whether mosquito feeding assays should be used for the evaluation of transmission-reducing interventions in the field and whether these field-based mosquito assays are currently standardized sufficiently to enable accurate evaluations. Here, we address biological and methodological reasons for the observed variations, discuss whether these preclude the use of field-based mosquito feeding assays in field evaluations of transmission-blocking interventions, and propose how we can maximize the precision of estimates. Altogether, we underscore the significant advantages of field-based mosquito feeding assays in basic malaria research and field trials

An Analysis of Genetic Diversity and Inbreeding in Wuchereria bancrofti: Implications for the Spread and Detection of Drug Resistance

Estimates of genetic diversity in helminth infections of humans often have to rely on genotyping (immature) parasite transmission stages instead of adult worms. Here we analyse the results of one such study investigating a single polymorphic locus (a change at position 200 of the β-tubulin gene) in microfilariae of the lymphatic filarial parasite Wuchereria bancrofti. The presence of this genetic change has been implicated in benzimidazole resistance in parasitic nematodes of farmed ruminants. Microfilariae were obtained from patients of three West African villages, two of which were sampled prior to the introduction of mass drug administration. An individual-based stochastic model was developed showing that a wide range of allele frequencies in the adult worm populations could have generated the observed microfilarial genetic diversity. This suggests that appropriate theoretical null models are required in order to interpret studies that genotype transmission stages. Wright's hierarchical F-statistic was used to investigate the population structure in W. bancrofti microfilariae and showed significant deficiency of heterozygotes compared to the Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium; this may be partially caused by a high degree of parasite genetic differentiation between hosts. Studies seeking to quantify accurately the genetic diversity of helminth populations by analysing transmission stages should increase their sample size to account for the variability in allele frequency between different parasite life-stages. Helminth genetic differentiation between hosts and non-random mating will also increase the number of hosts (and the number of samples per host) that need to be genotyped, and could enhance the rate of spread of anthelmintic resistance

The therapeutic efficacy and macrofilaricidal activity of doxycycline for the treatment of river blindness

Background. Onchocerca volvulus and lymphatic filariae, causing river blindness and elephantiasis, depend on endosymbiotic Wolbachia bacteria for growth, development, fertility, and survival. Clinical trials have shown that doxycycline treatment eliminates Wolbachia, causing long-term sterilization of adult female filariae and effecting potent macrofilaricidal activity. The continual reinfection by drug-naive worms that occurs in these trial settings dilutes observable anti-Wolbachia and antifilarial effects, making it difficult to estimate therapeutic efficacy and compare different doxycycline regimens, evaluated at different times after treatment. Methods. A meta-analytical modeling framework is developed to link all usable data collected from clinical trials measuring the Wolbachia status and viability of individual female adult worms collected at various times after treatment with 4, 5, or 6 weeks of daily 100 or 200 mg oral doxycycline. The framework is used to estimate efficacy parameters that are not directly measurable as trial outcomes. Results. The estimated efficacy of doxycycline (the maximum proportional reduction in the percentage of adult female O. volvulus positive for Wolbachia) is 91%–94% on average, irrespective of the treatment regimen. Efficacy is >95% in the majority of trial participants. The life span of Wolbachia-depleted worms is reduced by 70%–80%, from approximately 10 years to 2–3 years. Conclusions. The efficacy parameters are pertinent to the prospects of using doxycycline on a “test and treat” basis for onchocerciasis control and confirm doxycycline as a potent macrofilaricidal therapy. The modeling approach is more generally relevant to the design and evaluation of clinical trials for antifilarial drugs conducted in endemic settings

Plasmodium falciparum Produce Lower Infection Intensities in Local versus Foreign Anopheles gambiae Populations

Both Plasmodium falciparum and Anopheles gambiae show great diversity in Africa, in their own genetic makeup and population dynamics. The genetics of the individual mosquito and parasite are known to play a role in determining the outcome of infection in the vector, but whether differences in infection phenotype vary between populations remains to be investigated. Here we established two A. gambiae s.s. M molecular form colonies from Cameroon and Burkina Faso, representing a local and a foreign population for each of the geographical sites. Experimental infections of both colonies were conducted in Cameroon and Burkina Faso using local wild P. falciparum, giving a sympatric and allopatric vector-parasite combination in each site. Infection phenotype was determined in terms of oocyst prevalence and intensity for at least nine infections for each vector-parasite combination. Sympatric infections were found to produce 25% fewer oocysts per midgut than allopatric infections, while prevalence was not affected by local/foreign interactions. The reduction in oocyst numbers in sympatric couples may be the result of evolutionary processes where the mosquito populations have locally adapted to their parasite populations. Future research on vector-parasite interactions must take into account the geographic scale of adaptation revealed here by conducting experiments in natural sympatric populations to give epidemiologically meaningful results

Improving statistical inference on pathogen densities estimated by quantitative molecular methods: malaria gametocytaemia as a case study

BACKGROUND: Quantitative molecular methods (QMMs) such as quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (q-PCR), reverse-transcriptase PCR (qRT-PCR) and quantitative nucleic acid sequence-based amplification (QT-NASBA) are increasingly used to estimate pathogen density in a variety of clinical and epidemiological contexts. These methods are often classified as semi-quantitative, yet estimates of reliability or sensitivity are seldom reported. Here, a statistical framework is developed for assessing the reliability (uncertainty) of pathogen densities estimated using QMMs and the associated diagnostic sensitivity. The method is illustrated with quantification of Plasmodium falciparum gametocytaemia by QT-NASBA. RESULTS: The reliability of pathogen (e.g. gametocyte) densities, and the accompanying diagnostic sensitivity, estimated by two contrasting statistical calibration techniques, are compared; a traditional method and a mixed model Bayesian approach. The latter accounts for statistical dependence of QMM assays run under identical laboratory protocols and permits structural modelling of experimental measurements, allowing precision to vary with pathogen density. Traditional calibration cannot account for inter-assay variability arising from imperfect QMMs and generates estimates of pathogen density that have poor reliability, are variable among assays and inaccurately reflect diagnostic sensitivity. The Bayesian mixed model approach assimilates information from replica QMM assays, improving reliability and inter-assay homogeneity, providing an accurate appraisal of quantitative and diagnostic performance. CONCLUSIONS: Bayesian mixed model statistical calibration supersedes traditional techniques in the context of QMM-derived estimates of pathogen density, offering the potential to improve substantially the depth and quality of clinical and epidemiological inference for a wide variety of pathogens

Onchocerciasis Control: Vision for the Future from a Ghanian perspective

Since 1987 onchocerciasis control has relied on the donation of ivermectin (Mectizan®, Merck & Co., Inc.) through the Mectizan Donation Programme. Recently, concern has been raised over the appearance of suboptimal responses to ivermectin in Ghana – highlighting the potential threat of the development of resistance to ivermectin. This report summarises a meeting held in Ghana to set the research agenda for future onchocerciasis control. The aim of this workshop was to define the research priorities for alternative drug and treatment regimes and control strategies to treat populations with existing evidence of suboptimal responsiveness and define research priorities for future control strategies in the event of the development of widespread ivermectin resistance

Systematic review of the entomological impact of insecticide-treated nets evaluated using experimental hut trials in Africa.

Resistance of anopheline mosquitoes to pyrethroid insecticides is spreading rapidly across sub-Saharan Africa, diminishing the efficacy of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) - the primary tool for preventing malaria. The entomological efficacy of indoor vector control interventions can be measured in experimental hut trials (EHTs), where hut structures resemble local housing, but allow the collection of mosquitoes that entered, exited, blood-fed and/or died. There is a need to understand how the spread of resistance changes ITN efficacy and to elucidate factors influencing EHT results, including differences in experimental hut design, to support the development of novel vector control tools. A comprehensive database of EHTs was compiled following a systematic review to identify all known trials investigating ITNs or indoor residual spraying across sub-Saharan Africa. This analysis focuses on EHTs investigating ITNs and uses Bayesian statistical models to characterise the complex interaction between ITNs and mosquitoes, the between-study variability, and the impact of pyrethroid resistance. As resistance rises, the entomological efficacy of ITNs declines. They induce less mortality and are less likely to deter mosquitoes from entering huts. Despite this, ITNs continue to offer considerable personal protection by reducing mosquito feeding until resistance reaches high levels. There are clear associations between the different entomological impacts of ITNs, though there is still substantial variability between studies, some of which can be accounted for by hut design. The relationship between EHT outcomes and the level of resistance (as measured by discriminating dose bioassays) is highly uncertain. The meta-analyses show that EHTs are an important reproducible assay for capturing the complex entomological efficacy of ITNs on blood-feeding mosquitoes. The impact of pyrethroid resistance on these measures appears broadly consistent across a wide geographical area once hut design is accounted for, suggesting results can be extrapolated beyond the sites where the trials were conducted. Further work is needed to understand factors influencing EHT outcomes and how the relationship between outcomes and resistance varies when different methods are used to assess the level of resistance in wild mosquito populations. This will allow more precise estimates of the efficacy of these important vector control tools

Observed Reductions in Schistosoma mansoni Transmission from Large-Scale Administration of Praziquantel in Uganda: A Mathematical Modelling Study

To date schistosomiasis control programmes based on chemotherapy have largely aimed at controlling morbidity in treated individuals rather than at suppressing transmission. In this study, a mathematical modelling approach was used to estimate reductions in the rate of Schistosoma mansoni reinfection following annual mass drug administration (MDA) with praziquantel in Uganda over four years (2003-2006). In doing this we aim to elucidate the benefits of MDA in reducing community transmission.Age-structured models were fitted to a longitudinal cohort followed up across successive rounds of annual treatment for four years (Baseline: 2003, TREATMENT: 2004-2006; n = 1,764). Instead of modelling contamination, infection and immunity processes separately, these functions were combined in order to estimate a composite force of infection (FOI), i.e., the rate of parasite acquisition by hosts.MDA achieved substantial and statistically significant reductions in the FOI following one round of treatment in areas of low baseline infection intensity, and following two rounds in areas with high and medium intensities. In all areas, the FOI remained suppressed following a third round of treatment.This study represents one of the first attempts to monitor reductions in the FOI within a large-scale MDA schistosomiasis morbidity control programme in sub-Saharan Africa. The results indicate that the Schistosomiasis Control Initiative, as a model for other MDA programmes, is likely exerting a significant ancillary impact on reducing transmission within the community, and may provide health benefits to those who do not receive treatment. The results obtained will have implications for evaluating the cost-effectiveness of schistosomiasis control programmes and the design of monitoring and evaluation approaches in general